Given the wonky marketplace, studios haven’t been really bullish about putting advance box office projections out there. No one wants to get over their skis. However, New Line’s DC Dwayne Johnson movie Black Adam is tracking to a $65M-$70M opening according to industry sources.
Black Adam opens on Oct. 21, and it’s the first major tentpole we’ve had since Sony’s Bullet Train during the first weekend in August. That pic just crossed $100M.
The pic is very hot on tracking now, like a one-eyed giant in the land of the blind. Meaning there’s nothing else like it right now. The movie is strong with guys over and under 25, then women under 25, Latino and Hispanic moviegoers and families. If the pic exceeds $68.1M in its domestic start, it becomes Johnson’s best solo opening after 2001’s The Mummy Returns in which he had a cameo as The Scorpion King.
Originally Black Adam was suppose to go on July 29, but then due to the pandemic backlog of VFX work in post-production houses, Warners moved the Jaume Collet-Serra directed movie to the fourth weekend of October. That gave Warner Bros and Johnson the opportunity to tubthump Black Adam at San Diego Comic-Con.
Also opening on Oct. 21, aimed squarely at older women, is Universal’s George Clooney and Julia Roberts romantic comedy Ticket to Paradise, that pic have already grossed over $46.4M abroad.
Biggest opening ever at the October domestic box office is Warner Bros/DC’s R-rated Joker which debuted to $96.2M in 2019.
Moviegoing begets moviegoing. While it’s standard for the fall to have titles that are geared toward adults, missing from marquees right now is a mega tentpole around which all this counterprogramming rotates and becomes a tide that raises all boats.
Last October was massive with all movies making $623.2M fueled by the success of Venom: Let There Be Carnage, Dune, Halloween Kills and No Time to Die.